Expansionist Statements of Russian Naval High Command Are Cause for Concern

Confirming possibilities raised posted September of last year on Unequal Time's sister blog, Dancing With Bears, the Russian Navy has announced its intention to establish a continued naval presence in international waters outside of Russia's own maritime jurisdiction.  As reported by Russia Today's English online edition (by way of our friend at the Naval Open Source Intelligence blog), Deputy Chief of Russia's Armed Forces Staff, Anatoly Nogovitsyn, is quoted as saying:

"The political decision on this matter has been made. Bases will settle down on Sokorta Island (Yemen), in Tartus (Syria) and Tripoli (Libya). Now it’s very difficult to say when these bases will appear in these countries, but in several years time it undoubtedly will happen. From both the economic and the technical military point of view, there is no other way to solve the problem of our Navy’s regular presence in distant sea areas for the protection of Russia’s national interests."

Although the Russian navy's global reach has been continuing its policy of forced contraction in recent years - as evidenced by their withdrawal of the strategically valuable Vietnamese port of Cam Ranh in 2000 - mainly due to a lack of funding stemming from the weak Russian economy.  Recent growth in Russia's defense industry, combined with an emphasis on power projection should awaken the minds of Western policymakers to the very real possibility that there is an endgame in progress.

Despite its massive size, Russia has many of the same problems of historic powers that had to rely on maritime superiority as a means of promoting domestic economic prosperity.  Nearly surrounded by a host of allies of convenience or outright enemies, the Russian Federation cannot build its power on a foundation of over dependable over-land or straight-line airborne routes.

There are reasons to believe that the Russians have shifted policy to one that is drastically more expansionist.

• the Russians have been given permission by the Icelandic government use of the former U.S. airbase at Keflavik, Iceland (read here)
• Russian and Venezuelan naval vessels participated in joint exercises in the Caribbean in the fall of 2008 (read here)
• Russian Federation commits to full funding for completion of GLONASS global satellite navigation system, a system that in addition to its surface navigation capabilities was originally designed as a ballistic missile targeting system (read here)
• Joint exercises in December 2008 with Indian navy ships in the Indian Ocean to train on carrier-destroying tactics (read here)

There are more data points on this curve; these items must be considered along with a tidal wave of arms agreements, mutual defense agreements, and other developments that have been made between Russian and many other nations across the globe.  All indications would point to some intention by the sleeping bear to enhance its power position across the globe particularly in their commitment to making GLONASS fully operational.

As Americans begin to assess the incoming Obama administration, they should do with a firm understanding of the geopolitical events currently unfolding.

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Cross-posted at Dancing with Bears.

Technorati Tags: foreign affairs,Russia,The New Cold War

Russian Navy Training Extends to Indian Ocean

Joint Indo-Russian Exercise to Train on Carrier-Destroying Tactics

The navy of the Russian Federation is once again sailing on all of the globe's major oceans, projecting power to all strategic regions.  According to our friend at Naval Open Source Intelligence:

Russia's most potent nuclear-powered heavy missile cruiser sets out on a voyage to India from here on Tuesday to participate in joint naval wargames with the Indian Navy in January next year.

"Pyotr Veliky" (Peter-the-Great), known as the 'Killer of Aircraft Carriers' will be in warmer waters of the Indian Ocean for large-scale exercises with the Navy, during which they will train on how to destruct aircraft carriers.

This announcements comes on the heels of the Russian Navy's joint exercises with Venezuela in the Carribbean and the round-trip of the destroyer Admiral Chabanenko through the Panama Canal, the first time such a voyage has occurred since World War II.

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Technorati Tags: military,Russia,India,national security

Russia and Iran Running Hand-in-Hand to the Finish Line

How bad does something right under our nose have to stink before we take notice?

Israel's DebkaFile is reporting that, according to Russian and Iranian sources, Atomstroiexport - a Russian firm that has previously been confirmed as the operator of Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant - will be putting the plans for completion into high gear with a projected completion mid-2009.

From the DebkaFile article:

Sergei Kiriyenko, director of the Russian company, visited Tehran on Nov. 27 to tie up the final stage of the reactor's construction. Kiriyenko, former Russian prime minister and personal emissary of the incumbent prime minister Vladimir Putin, again assured the Iranians that the reactor would be ready to go within a few months.

The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, begun by the German firm Kratwerk-Union A.G. (a unit of Siemens A.G.)  in 1975, abandoned by the Germans in 1979, bombed by the Iraqis during the Iran-Iraq War (1985-1988), has never been online.  An agreement with the Russians in 1995 for supply of a light water reactor put a timeline back on the table for completion and now it would seem that there is some extra impetus to get the first reactor online sometime next year.

Since 1998, the United States has been opposing the nuclear program there on the grounds that it was unnecessary for the region's power needs and therefore was being used as cover for the development of other technologies.  Since then, it has been a focus of the world's concerns regarding the potential for Iran to develop weaponized plutonium.

My guess is that it will be finished just in time to be razed to the ground.  The site is on the shores the Persian Gulf, an tactically uncomplicated strike by sea-borne assault.

Is this a casus belli in the making?  An ambush?  Or does Bushehr represent a real threat?

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Technorati Tags: Atomstroiexport,Russia,Bushehr,DebkaFile,foreign affairs,Iran,nuclear weapons

What's More Important than The Economy?

This report comes from The Debka Review:

Russian live missile fire air exercise near Alaska
DEBKAfile Special Report
4 Oct.: Not since 1984, just before the fall of the Soviet Union, has Russia ventured to launch dozens of nuclear bombers for an exercise in which Tu-95 Bear bombers will fire live cruise missiles. Exercise Stability 2008 will take place Oct.-6-12 over sub-Arctic Russia, uncomfortably close to Alaska.

The exercise is part of a month-long war game described by Russian air force spokesman Col. Vladimir Drik as “practicing the strategic deployment of the armed forces including the nuclear triad.”

As part of the exercise, our sources reported exclusively on Oct. 1, that Russian ships armed with nuclear missiles will dock at Syrian ports Oct. 8, on the eve of Yom Kippur, before continuing to the Caribbean for joint maneuvers with Venezuela

Read the full story here.

If you didn't hear anything about this in the media, it's because the entire nation is distracted by the presidential campaign and the economic crisis.  The downplaying of the Russian threat within the dialogue of the election is actually prudent - public statements or shoe-pounding will set a Cold War into high gear and make it harder to pursue other foreign policy strategies.  The media's ignoring of these events, including:

• The Russian Navy's maneuvers in the Caribbean, also to include live fire missile drills
• Russian-Venezuelan military cooperation and sales of newest generation military tech to Syria, Iran and Venezuela, to name a few buying nations
• Russia's intentions to build a space complex in Cuba, a potential back door for military missile hardware and technology
• A large funding increase to allow Russia to complete the expansion and upgrades of GLONASS, their global satellite navigation system
• Suspected sales of S-300 anti-aircraft and anti-missile missile systems to Iran, to be used in defense of a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities

There are many reasons to suspect that Russia may have determined that their fastest route to economic strength and international relevance is to become a hegemonic power, in much the same that the United States did in the wake of the Spanish-American War and following World War II.

There will be more posts on this as additional events occur.

Cross-posted at Dancing with Bears.